Friday, May 31, 2013

Are commodity currencies going to continue falling

We have seen commodity currencies: Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and to some extent Canadian dollar falling for some time now. Will the fall continue to the next month? I think it won't. We are having a rate decision coming from Australia next week on Tuesday (on the fourth of June) and this might change the course of a current downward trend in commodity currencies. If they do not decrease interest rates and refrain from any dovish comments market will most probably change their sentiment towards commodities (at least towards Australian dollar).

Looking at such currency crosses as eur/aud and gbp/aud you can clearly see that they have overextended their rise and are at important resistance levels. So, sit down during the weekend and do your own homework regarding commodity currencies. This can help you to prepare for profitable trading next week.

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Double bottom in gbp/usd made a good trade

I enjoy trading various chart formations and patterns. Yesterday, I was going through the basket of currencies that I follow and saw that gbp/usd made very nice double bottom formation on hourly charts. It made the first point on the 23rd of May (2013) and the second one on the 29th of May (2013). I calculated (according to my rules) and saw that the most logical entry zone for a long was 1.5145 level with a stop loss below the small retracement that you see on the 1 or 4 hour chart. Your stop should have been at 1.5097 level. I also saw that the exit level was around 1.5250 area (following supply and demand levels).

The market went up today and my order was opened. Stop loss is safe and take profit is not reached yet. I hope it will happen in the next thirty minutes. You see I am mostly a day trader and close my trades when New York session ends. So, it is time to get out. It is clear that the news could hit my stop today, but fortunately it did not. This is risky business. Anyway, the trade went well and I am happy about it. Looking forward to tomorrow's fundamental events in Euro and Canadian dollar.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Will Japanese Yen reverse soon

It obvious that Japanese Yen has been the biggest loser this year in Forex market. Can the trend continue till the end of the year or possibly even further? This is purely speculation, but I do not think that the trend will continue into next year. I bet the downward trend will continue through the summer of 2013 and we will see a reversal or bottoming process in Yen by the end of the year. Why?

It looks like market has already priced in most of the available fundamentals. We do know that Bank of Japan is stimulating economy and we know how much. If the economic numbers for Japan start getting better this will prove that their strategy works and Yen will finally reverse. If they do not intend to add more to their stimulus the same thing will happen: Yen will turn around. I am not buying Yen yet, as I do not see a bottom yet, but I am always on alert as I know that reversals can be very sharp and fast. And this, as you may understand present good opportunities. So, be watchful and do not start buying Yen too soon.

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