Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Why is demo trading different from real



I have no doubt that those who have been long in business know the answer to the question. However, most newbies don’t and I just want to give a few thoughts of mine on the topic. I have traded both: demo and real account and had mixed results doing that. I still have a demo account for analysis purposes, but I do trade real money now. The results on these accounts are different for the following reasons.

Firstly, when you do not risk real money you do not have stress and this creates an illusion that trading is easy. 

Secondly, you usually risk much more on demo account than on real one and that type of risk is dangerous. It is simply too big!

Thirdly, you will not be trading demo account consistently as there is no real incentive to trade. It is just a game, which leads you nowhere financially. You need real money to make to get inspired. 

The amount on a demo account is usually much bigger than you would trade on a real account.
These are the main reasons why results on demo account differ from the results on a real one. 

Ok, sorry for too shallow post. Too lazy to expand on the topic during holiday season.

Good luck.

Sunday, December 23, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H)

At the moment, a valid falling wedge pattern in aqua would bolster to either alt counts in white or aqua. Otherwise, a breakout toward the bearish continuation critical line 1 would indicate that market may already in a bearish reversal trend in yellow. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

What to expect in Forex next year



Most people want to make some sort of resolutions before the year ends. They want to evaluate the previous year and make some plans for another one. It is very important to do the same thing for Forex market. You should be able to form and have your own expectations as to where this or that currency pair will go and take advantage of that knowledge. Planning is key and following the plan is essential in order to succeed in fx market. It will take some pain before you form your expectations, but as people say:”No pain, no gain”. You should follow this common folk wisdom and do your own analysis.

I have just stumbled upon a short but useful article in oanda blog regarding expectations for the next year for currencies. I decided to share it with you. Hope it will be useful for you too. Here is the link: Reviewand expectations for 2012/13. The article is short and you will finish quite fast. Do not be lazy. Read these kind of articles and learn to do this kind of analysis yourself. You will gain priceless lessons by doing that. Ok, enough for today. See you soon.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H)

At the moment, I am looking forward for a potential of "bull trap" pattern refering to the alt count in yellow. Another an exausted of bullish rally and follow by a pullback/breakout toward the lower yellow trendline would bolster to this scenario. Happy Christmas Holidays and good luck. 

Will eur/usd reverse now



After going up for quite a long time eur/usd pair saw a sharp reversal yesterday. A lot of folks have been claiming that this is the end of the move, but I do not think so. I do not have many proofs for this argument, except one and that is: it is not logical to close all of your positions if you have been going up in some direction (in pre holiday season). I have seen this a dozen of times. Markets usually rush in some direction before and after Christmas ignoring most of the news and only with the first days of New Year reversal takes place.

So, I do not believe eur/usd will reverse now. Therefore, I am holding a very small long position in the pair. Took some partial profits though! I hope to close the entire position before Friday close. Not sure about working hours during holiday season. Have to check them with my broker. Better safe than sorry! You do not want to have a position open and not being able to close that just because your broker is not working. 

Anyways, eur/usd will probably continue going up. That’s it! See you soon.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

About having stop loss orders in Forex

To have or not to have a stop? That is what most Forex traders ask. They want to find the best solution to their problem. I do not think there really is such an easy answer to the question. One must base his trading on  his philosophy, capital size rules, emotional maturity and a few other important things. I do believe we need to always use stop in placing any trades whether it is Forex, stocks, commodities or other financial markets.
I have recently found an interesting article on the subject and I want you to check it out. Hope it will help you on the question. Here it is: Why don't we keep stops?

Gbp vs Jpy (1H)

At the moment, I believe market in progress to complete wave 5. A potential toward a bearish reversal trend scenario either refering to the alt counts in white or yellow still remain to be seen later. Good luck.

Monday, December 17, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H)

Favourably, I am looking toward a potential of a bearish reversal trend scenario in white. A false breakout from the bullish continuation critical line 1 would bolster to this scenario. Or market in favour refering to the alt counts in yellow if market break the lower red trendline and the bearish continuation critical line 1. Otherwise, we may see another bull rally in aqua. Good luck.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) & Eur vs Jpy (1H)

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - At the moment, I believe market have a potential to perform another bullish continuation trend scenario either in yellow or aqua before any opportunity toward a bearish reversal trend scenario.Otherwise, we may see a further bearish reversal trend in white.
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Eur vs Jpy (1H) - At the moment, I believe market will go futher up either in yellow or aqua before start to reverse. Otherwise, market will go down to perform corrective wave c/A in white. Good luck.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) & Eur vs Jpy (1H)



Gbp/Jpy and Eur/Jpy (1H) - At the moment, please be noted that the previous alt counts in yellow and white are already invalid (recount). I believed market in progress to complete wave 5 but its still yet remain to be seen which alt counts that is more in favour. Good luck.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) & Eur vs Jpy (1H)

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - At the moment, I am looking toward a potential of "bull trap" pattern to complete corrective wave b either refering to the alt counts in yellow or white before expecting a bearish reversal trend scenario to perform corrective wave c. Otherwise, I believe we may see another bullish rally to complete wave 5 in aqua.
Eur vs Jpy (1H) - Favourably, I am looking toward a potential of a bearish continuation trend scenario to perform corrective wave c.either refering to the alt counts in yellow or white. A pullback from FR 61.8% would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, I believe we may see a double top scenario in aqua. Good luck.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) & Eur vs Jpy (1H)

Gbp vs Jpy (1) - At the moment, market just bounced from support. A breakout toward the aqua critical line would bolster to the bearish reversal trend scenario in yellow. Otherwise, we may see a potential of triple top scenario in white (b) or another bullish rally in magenta.

Eur vs Jpy (1H) - Preferably, I believed wave 5 is already completed and market in progress to perform a bearish reversal trend scenario. At the moment, I am looking forward market to perform a corrective wave b either in white or aqua before expecting toward another bearish continuation trend scenario. Otherwise, market may further go down to complete corrective wave a in yellow. Good luck.

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) & Eur vs Jpy (1H)

Gbp bs Jpy (1H) - At the moment, I believe market in progress to perform a bearish reversal trend scenario either to complete corrective wave a in white or yellow. A breakout to the lower red trendline would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for any breakout toward the white/yellow critical line.

Eur vs Jpy (1H) - At the moment, I believe market in progress to perform a bearish reversal trend scenario either to complete corrective wave a in white or yellow. Otherwise, please be careful if market bounce again from the bearish continuation critical line 1. Good luck.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) & Eur vs Jpy (1H)

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - Preferably, I believe market will perform a bearish reversal trend scenario either refering to the alt counts in yellow or white. A valid diagonal triangle pattern would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, we may see a potential of triple top scenario in aqua (refer daily naked chart) before consideration for a reversal.

Eur vs Jpy (1H) - At the moment, I believe market have a good potential to perform a bearish reversal trend scenario either refering to the alt counts in yellow or white. A valid diagonal triangle pattern and follow by a breakout toward the aqua critical line would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for another bull rally in aqua. Good luck.

Monday, December 3, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) & Eur vs Jpy (1H)

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - Preferably, I'm looking for a "bull trap" pattern in yellow before expecting toward a potential of bearish reversal trend scenario. Otherwise,we may see  market further down to complete subwave iii in white.

Eur vs Jpy (1H) -Favourably, I believe market in progress to complete subwave v/5 in yellow before expecting toward a potential of bearish reversal trend scenario. A breakout to the bullish continuation critical line 1 would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, market may already in a bearish reversal trend scenario to complete corrective wave a in white. Good luck.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy 1H

Favourably, I'm looking for another bullish contiuation trend scenario before an opportunity toward a potential of bearish reversal trend scenario either refering to the alt counts in yellow or aqua. This scenario would be invalid if market further break the yellow/aqua critical line which market may already in bearish reversal trend to perform corrective wave C in white. Good luck. 

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy 1H

At the moment, more likely market have potential to perform another bullish continuation trend scenario either to complete a bull trap in yellow or subwave iii in aqua. Otherwise, we may see a bearish reversal trend scenario in white. Good luck.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy 1H

At the moment, please be extra careful since market have potentail to perform another bullish continuation trend scenario refering to the alt count in aqua or a bull trap pattern in yellow. Otherwise, we may see a pullback from FR 61.8 to perform subwave iii refering to the alt count in white. Good luck. .

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) & Eur vs Jpy (1H)

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - Favourably, I'm looking toward an opportunity of bearish reversal trend scenario either to perform corrective wave c in yellow or white. A breakout toward the bearish continuation critical line 1 and 2 would bolster to this scenario. Please be careful for another bullish rally to complete wave 5 in aqua.

Eur vs Jpy (1H) - At the moment, a breakout to the lower red trendline would bolster to the bearish reversal trend scenario either in yellow or white. Otherwise, we may see another bullish continuation trend to complete wave 5 in aqua. Good luck.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) & Eur vs Jpy (1H)

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - At the moment, I'm looking toward a potential of bearish retracement trend scenario either refering to the alt counts in yellowor white. A breakout to the lower red trendline would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for an extension of wave 5 in aqua.

Eur vs Jpy (1H) - At the moment, I believe market in progress to perform a bearish retracement trend scenario either to perform corrective wave c in yellow/white or wave 4 in aqua. A valid diagonal triangle pattern would bolster to this scenario. Good luck.

Sunday, November 25, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) & Eur vs Jpy (1H)

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - Favourably, I'm looking towards a potentail of bearish reversal trend scenario refering to the alt counts in yellow or whute. A breakout to the lower red trendline would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise we may see another rally to complete wave 5 in aqua.

Eur vs Jpy (1H) - Preferably, I believe market in progress to complete wave 5 (yellow or white) ir wave 3 (aqua). A pullback or a bulltrap pattern would bolster to this scenario. Good luck.

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy 1H

At the moment, as long the bullish continuation critical line 1 is remain intact, we may see a potenial of bearish reversal trend scenario either refering to the alt counts in white or yellow. Otherwise I believe way see another bullish continuation trend scenario to complete wave 5 in aqua. Good luck and happy weekend. 

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy 1H

At this moment, a potential of bearish retracement trend is still yet remain to be seen. A pullback from FE316.8 would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, we may see a breakout and another bullish rally until March 2012 high (133.40 - please refer daily naked chart). Good luck. 

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy 1H

At the moment, due to the yesterday breakout, I believe market in progress to complete an extension of either wave 3 in aqua or wave 5 in yellow. Therefore. I'm looking forward for a possible retracement either to complete corrective wave a (yellow) or wave 4 (aqua). Otherwise, we may see another bullish rally until FE261.8 before any potential of retracement. Good luck. 

Monday, November 19, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy 1H

At the moment, I believe market in progress to perform a bearish retracement trend scenario either to perform a corrective wave a in yellow or wave 4 in aqua. A pullback from the yellow/aqua critital line would bolster to this scenario.Otherwise we may see another breakout to complete wave 5 in white. Good luck. 

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) & Aud vs Usd (4H)


Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - At the moment, I believe market either in progress to complete a wave 3 in aqua or wave 5 in yellow. Therefore I'm looking toward a potential of bearish retracemenet trend either to perform wave 4 (aqua) or corrective wave a (yellow). A triple top and a "bull trap" pattern would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise we may see another extension of wave 5 in white.

Aud vs Usd (4H) - Preferably, I believe market in progress to complete wave ii before expecting toward another strong bearish continuation trend scenario either to perform an impulsive wave iii in aqua or yellow. This scenario would be invalid if market further go up and break the aqua/yellow critical line. Good luck.

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) & Aud vs Usd (4H)

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - At the moment, please be noted that the yesterday previous alt counts in yellow and white are already invalid. Favourably, I'm looking forward for a potential of bearish retracement trend scenario either in yellow or white. Otherwise please be careful for an extension of wave 3 in aqua.

Aud vs Usd (4H) - At the moment, I'm looking forward for a potential of bullish retracement trend scenario either in yellow or aqua. Otherwise we may see another bearish rally. Good luck.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) & Aud vs Usd (4H)

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - At the moment, I'm looking forward for another bearish continuation trend scenario either to complete subwave v in yellow or white. Otherwise we may see another bull rally in aqua.

Aud vs Usd (4H) - Preferably, I'm looking for an opportunity toward a strong bearish reversal trend scenario in yellow to perform corrective wave C. Otherwise please be careful for any spike to complete a bull trap in aqua. Good luck. 

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy 1H

At the moment, I believe market in progress to perform a bullish retracement trend scenario either in yellow or aqua. A breakout to the white critical line would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise we may see another bullish continuation trend scenario in white before a potential of reversal trend. Good luck.

Monday, November 12, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (1H) & Aus vs Usd (4H)


Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - Favourably, I believe market in progress to perform a bullish retracement trend scenario refering to the alt count in yellow. Otherwise, we may see a "bear trap" pattern refering to the alt count in white. 


Aud vs Usd (4H) - Preferably, I'm looking forward for an opportunity toward a strong bearish reversal trend scenario either refering to the alt count in yellow or aqua. A breakout toward the lower yellow trendline would bolster to this scenario. Please be careful for any potential of "bull trap" pattern in aqua. Good luck.

Gbp vs Jpy 1H



At the moment, I'm looking forward for a potential of bullish retracement trend scenario in yellow. A breakout tothe bullish continuation critical line 1 would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise we may see another bearish continuation trend scenario in white. Good luck.

Sunday, June 3, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy (4H) & Eur vs Jpy (Weekly) - Market Overview



Gbp vs Jpy (4H) - At the moment, I believe market in progress to perform a bullish retracement trend scenario either to complete subwave iv (yellow or white) or corrective wave a (aqua) before another bearish continuation trend scenario.



Eur vs Jpy (Weekly) - Preferably, I'm looking forward for a potential of bullish retracement trend scenario either to perform subwave 4 in yellow (truncated) or white before another bearish continuation trend scenario. Good luck.

Monday, May 28, 2012

Eur vs Jpy Weekly



At the moment, I'm looking forward for a potential of major bullish reversal trend scenario refering to the alt count in yellow. A bounce and a "bear trap" scenario would bolster to this sentiment. Otherwise, we may see a double bottom in white 1st. before a major reversal. Good luck.

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Gbp vs Jpy 4H


At the moment, I believe market in progress to complete major corrective wave B either refering to the alt counts in aqua, yellow or white. Favourably, I'm looking forward for a potential of bullish reversal trend scenario in yellow. A valid diagonal triangle pattern later would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, we may see another extension of wave B in white. Good luck.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

What are the reasons for bubbles in financial markets


Market booms are nothing new. They have always been and they will be till the end of the world. People do not know this because they do not study markets and that’s why they think when market bubbles form it is something new. It is not. It happens repetitively at least every ten years, so you can expect to catch a market boom or some 5-6 booms till you are alive. But what causes market booms? 

One of the key things that cause markets to boom is low interest rates that central banks set up. This provides people with unique opportunities to borrow money under very good conditions. Huge banks borrow money from central banks, they distribute it to smaller ones, and those give it to people and different businesses and in this way a lot of money starts reaching market. It is being poured into different stock markets, commodity markets, and currency markets and into economy as a whole.

This causes salaries to rise, all economy spheres to boom and a nation to prosper. However, after some time inflation starts going up. It brings interest rates up as well. Various financial markets slow down as it becomes not so easy to borrow money and invest in the markets. When interest rates peak, stocks are going down, sometimes collapsing, businesses find it difficult to do new projects, people to pay off their loans and bankruptcies start. In this way economy starts contracting and the end of the boom is usually crisis. 

So, this information can be used to make advantage of various markets booms. You know that when it starts it will continue for some time and you will be able to make some nice cash before the boom is over. I would encourage you to study financial markets and watch for conditions that would show you that a market bubble is on its way. Good luck.
 
See also: Gold and silver