Monday, March 15, 2010

CLOSING THE WEEK AT A HIGH OR LOW

Five years of observing the Forex Market nearly everyday at what seems hours on end will bring you to certain conclusions. Of course, most traders with any amount of experience will come to many of the same conclusions however there are certain little nuances that may slip by many. One such quirk I have noticed is how the market will close the week at the high or low and then at the opening of the following week will more often than not retreat back inside of the previous week's range. The EUR/USD 4 hour chart shown here will show three such instances in the past several weeks. What causes this to occur should be no mystery. The large institutional firms are like anyone else in that they do not want to be overexposed and like to trade the probabilities. With a new week comes new data to digest, new sentiment based on economic factors and as human nature would have it, a weekend will usually help to subdue any news hype that occurred the week before. These statements are merely my opinion but have basis in the facts that I have studied, but isn't trading about opinions anyway? The opinions of analysts, traders, fund managers, and even political figures are many times what shape the market as we know it...i.e. jawboning. One thing I do know to be fact however, is the many times that a currency pair will close at it's week's high or low on Friday, only to open on Sunday testing but rejecting those previous highs offering a great opportunity for some profits. It's not 100% but show me one thing in this market that is. Again, this is only my observance but I would suggest that you look back and judge for yourself.