Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy 4H


At this moment, market is already at the upper green trendline. Favourably, I'm looking for a "pullback" scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for another bullish rally toward the major upper yellow trendline. Good luck.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy and Eur vs Usd - Market Overview


Gbp vs Jpy (4H) - Please be noted due to the strong bullish trend, therefore I have to made some counting adjustment toward the alt counts in white and magenta. I still believed market still not complete the major wave 5 either in white or magenta and therefore, I'm still looking for any possibility toward a major bearish continuation trend scenario. Otherwise, please be very careful market may already completed the major wave 5 in yellow and already in progress to perform a bullish reversal trend.


Gbp vs Jpy (Daily) - Preferably, I'm still looking for an opportunity towards a bearish continuation trend scenario either in white or magenta.


Eur vs Usd (4H) - Favourably, I believed market will perform a bearish continuation trend scenario either in yellow or magenta. Otherwise, please be careful for a possible bullish retracement trend refering to the alt count in white.


Eur vs Usd (Weekly) - I believed market in progress to complete major wave 1 either in magenta or white. Please be careful for any strong bullish retracement trend scenario once major wave 1 is completed. Good luck.


Monday, March 29, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy and Gbp vs Usd - Market Overview


Gbp vs Jpy (4H) - Preferably, I'm looking forward for a bearish continuation trend scenario either refering to the alt counts in magenta or white. Otherwise, please be careful toward any bounce scenario in yellow.


Gbp vs Usd (Daily) - Favourably, I'm looking forward for a bearish continuation trend scenario either refering to the alt count in magenta or yellow. Otherwise please be careful toward any breakout at the upper green trendline perhap so perfom subwave c in 4 refering to the alt count in white scenario. Good luck.

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy 1H


At this moment, I'm looking for an opportunity towards a bearish continuation trend scenario either refering to the alt counts in magenta or white. Otherwise, please be careful towards a bullish reversal trend scenario in yellow. Good luck.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy, Gbp vs Usd, Eur vs Usd, Aud vs Usd & Usd vs Cad - Market Overview


Gbp vs Jpy (4H) - At this moment, I'm looking forward towards a bearish continuation opportunity refering to the subwave count in aqua. Otherwise, this scenario would be invalid if market continue to break the bullish continuation critical line 1.


Gbp vs Usd (Daily) - Preferably, I'm looking forward for a breakout towards the bearish continuation critical line 1 to bolster the bearish continuation trend scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for any bounce scenario perhaps to perform the unfinish of wave 4.


Eur vs Usd (4H) - Favourably, I believed market in progress to complete subwave 5 in 1 refering either to the alt count in yellow or magenta. Please be careful for a possible strong bullish retracement trend later to perform major wave 2.


Aud vs Usd (Daily) - As long the white critical line is remain intact, I strongly believed market in progress to perform a major bearish reversal trend scenario refering to the alt count in white. Otherwise, please be careful for another "bull trap" scenario perhaps to perform major corrective wave B in magenta.


Usd vs Cad (Daily) - Preferably, I believed market just perform a "bearish trap" scenario and looking forward towards a major bullish reversal trend scenario either refering to the alt count in yellow or white. Otherwise, please be careful for any possible "bearish trap" scenario. Happy weekend and good lucks.



Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy 1H


Please be noted that due to the strong bounce scenario, the alt count in magenta is already invalid. A strong breakout towards the pivot and bearish continuation critical line 1 is needed to bolster towards the bearish continuation trend scenario refering to the alt count in white. Otherwise, please be careful for another bullish rally and any breakout towards the upper green trendline.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy 1H


Favourably, I'm looking forwards for a bearish continuation trend scenario refering to the subwave count in aqua. A breakout towards the bearish continuation critical line 1 would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, this scenario would be invalid if market break the R3 critical line. Good luck.

Monday, March 22, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy 1H


Preferably, I believed market will perform a bearish continuation trend scneario refering to the alt count in magenta. A "pullback" from the upper green trendline and follow by a breakout towards the pivot critical line would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for any breakout toward the upper green trendline and magenta critical line. Good luck.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy and Eur vs Usd - Market Overview


Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - Preferably, I believed market in bearish continuation trend scenario either refering to the alt count in magenta or white scenario. Please be extra careful for any possibility towards a strong bullish retracement trend scenario perhaps to complete subwave 2 in white. A further breakout towards the bearish continuation critical line 1 and lower red trendline would bolster to the alt count in magenta scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for any bounce from the S3 critical line.


Eur vs Usd (4H) - Favourably, I believed market in progress to complete subwave 5 either in yellow or magenta. A breakout towards the white critical line would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful towards a bounce scenario, perhaps to perform subwave ii refering to the alt count in yellow. Good luck.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy, Aud vs Usd & Usd vs Cad - Market Overview


Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - Preferably, I'm looking towards a bearish trend scenario either refering to the alt count in yellow, white or magenta. A breakout towards the major yellow lower trendline would bolster towards the alt count in magenta. Otherwise, we shall expecting for a bounce scenario either refering to the alt count in yellow or white.


Aud vs Usd (Daily) - Please be noted that due to the breakout towards the upper green trendline, I have to made some recount adjustment refering to the alt count in magenta. A strong pullback would bolster towards the alt count in white scenario. Otherwise, another bullish rally would indicates either we shall see a "double top" scenario either refering to the alt count in magenta or yellow.

Usd vs Cad (Daily) - Preferably, I believed market just performed a "bearish trap" scenario and I'm looking forward for a major bullish reversal trend scenario either refering to the alt count in yellow or white. Otherwise, please be careful for any breakout towards the bearish continuation critical line 1. Happy weekend and good luck.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy and Gbp vs Usd - Market Overview


Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - At this moment, I believed market just perform a bullish trap scenario and looking forward for a bearish continuaiton trend scenario, perhaps to perform subwave 1 in aqua. Otherwise, please be careful for another breakout towards the upper green trendline.


Gbp vs Jpy (Daily) - Preferably, I'm looking forward for a major bearish continuation trend scenario either refering to the alt counts in white or magenta. Otherwise, please be careful towards a truncated scenario refering to the alt count in yellow.


Gbp vs Usd (Daily) - Favourably, I believed market will perform another bearish continuation trend either refering to the alt count in magenta or yellow. Otherwise, please be careful for any breakout towards the yellow critical line. Good luck.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy 1H


At this moment, I'm looking forward for a bearish trend and a pullback scenario either refering to the alt counts in white or magenta. A valid "rising wedge" pattern and a breakout towards the pivot critical line would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for a "bull trap scenario" or any breakout towards the R3 critical line. Good luck.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy and Eur vs Usd - Market Overview


Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - Favourably, I believed market in progress to perform a bearish continuation trend scenario either refering to the alt count in white or magenta. But please be noted that, market may perform a bullish retracement trend scenario to complete subwave 2 refering to the alt count in aqua.


Gbp vs Jpy (Daily) - At this moment, I believed market in progress to perform another bearish continuation trend scenario. A breakout towards the yellow critical line would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for any breakout towards the magenta critical line.


Eur vs Usd (4H) - Preferably, I believed market in progress to complete subwave 5 in 1 either in magenta or yellow. A breakout towards the lower red trendline would bolster towards the alt count in magenta scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for another bullish retracement trend refering either to the alt count in yellow or white. Good luck.

CLOSING THE WEEK AT A HIGH OR LOW

Five years of observing the Forex Market nearly everyday at what seems hours on end will bring you to certain conclusions. Of course, most traders with any amount of experience will come to many of the same conclusions however there are certain little nuances that may slip by many. One such quirk I have noticed is how the market will close the week at the high or low and then at the opening of the following week will more often than not retreat back inside of the previous week's range. The EUR/USD 4 hour chart shown here will show three such instances in the past several weeks. What causes this to occur should be no mystery. The large institutional firms are like anyone else in that they do not want to be overexposed and like to trade the probabilities. With a new week comes new data to digest, new sentiment based on economic factors and as human nature would have it, a weekend will usually help to subdue any news hype that occurred the week before. These statements are merely my opinion but have basis in the facts that I have studied, but isn't trading about opinions anyway? The opinions of analysts, traders, fund managers, and even political figures are many times what shape the market as we know it...i.e. jawboning. One thing I do know to be fact however, is the many times that a currency pair will close at it's week's high or low on Friday, only to open on Sunday testing but rejecting those previous highs offering a great opportunity for some profits. It's not 100% but show me one thing in this market that is. Again, this is only my observance but I would suggest that you look back and judge for yourself.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy, Gbp vs Usd, Aud vs Usd & Usd vs Cad - Market Overview


Gbp vs Jpy (1H) - At this moment, I believed market will perform a bearish continuation trend scenario either in magenta or white. Please be careful for any breakout towards the R3 critical line.


Gbp vs Usd (Daily) - At this moment, I'm looking forward for a bearish continuation trend scenario perhap to complete subwave v in yellow. Otherwise, please be careful for any further bullish retracement trend scenario in magenta.


Aud vs Usd (Daily) - At this moment, I believed market will perform a bearish trend either refering to the alt count in magenta or white. Therefore advisable to look for any oportunity towards a bearish entry signal from BSTS later.


Usd vs Cad (Daily) - Preferably, I believed market just performed a "bearish trap" scenario and therefore, I'm looking towards a bullish reversal trend to be perform later. A valid "triple bottom" reversal pattern would bolster towards this scenario.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy 1H


At this moment, I believed market just performed a "false breakout" and therefore I'm looking forward for a bearish continuation trend scneario. A valid "rising wedge" pattern would bolster towards this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for a breakout towards the aqua critical line. Happy weekends and good luck.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy 1H


At this moment, I'm looking forward for a breakout towards the lower red trendline to bolster the bearish continuation trend scenario refering to the alt count in aqua. Otherwise, please be careful either towards a breakout of the upper green trendline or a "double bottom" scenario. Good luck.

KEEPING TRACK OF YOUR PROGRESS

I recently finished reading the book "Stock Market Wizards" by Jack D. Schwager. In this book Mr. Schwager interviews 12 professional traders. All of these traders come from different backgrounds, engage in different market instruments, have many various techniques and strategies. All of them are very successful at managing not only their own funds, but many also manage very large funds for private and institutional investors. Aside from the requirements that any trader must abide by...self discipline, risk management, preparation, and sound technical knowledge, there was something that many of them did to greatly improve their trading results. One particular trader interviewed in the book is Mark Minervini. During his interview he began to talk about how tracking his trades actually helped him improve in his trading. Even after he had been involved in the market for several years, he decided to do a running analysis (journal) of his trades. He found that he was cutting most all of his winners off too short and letting his losses go to far. By one simple change, capped his losses at 10%, he could have improved his trading profits by 70%! Also by keeping consistent data on his trading results, he realized the by closing a losing position at 10%, he would not have to stay in the market waiting on that position to realize a profit and he would have more capital should another trade present itself. I think this is an eye opening revelation that is not stressed in many of the courses or workshops taught today. In my educational experiences, the importance of keeping track of your trading progress is mentioned but not emphasized. Well, I am telling you now, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO YOUR SUCCESS. How can you correct something you are doing wrong and improve upon it if you don't know what the problem is?

What should you write in your daily journal? First, you should write down the things you observe. If you see a particular pattern starting to develop on a certain currency pair, write it down. Track the results of that pattern including any details you observed such as the time frame, how long it took for the pattern to emerge and what size stops or limits you should use if you were to trade this pattern. I personally feel that keeping a journal or "paper trading" as many call it, is the best way to improve your skills in the market. You should write down any trade set ups you see happening in the market. Write down the price level, the factors you see that should cause this scenario to occur, your stop and limit and the time of day or session. Then, come back to the charts hours or even days later to see how it all unfolded. This will either build confidence in your method or show you where you need improvement. Once you establish a method that produces consistent results, you can always refer to your journal as a morale booster to prove that over a series of trades, you are profitable more often than not, and now you can use that conviction to engage in the market suppressing many of your emotions. You will know where your stop needs to be, where your profit targets should be placed and many times even know the probabilities of one set up versus another. The trading effeciency that I now enjoy all started with a simple daily journal started several years ago that I still refer to today.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy 1H


At this moment, I'm looking forward towards a bearish continuation trend scenario. A breakout towards the S3 critical line would bolster towards the alt counts either in magenta or yellow. Otherwise, please be careful any possibility towards a truncated scenario refring to the alt count in yellow. Good luck.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy, Gbp vs Usd & Aud vs Usd - Market Overview


Gbp vs Jpy (4H) - At this moment, I believed market in progress to perform subwave 5 either refering to the alt counts in yellow (truncated) or white. Otherwise, please be careful for any breakout towards the white critical line.


Gbp vs Usd (Daily) - At this moment, I'm looking forward for a bearish continuation trend scenario to perform subwave v in yellow. Otherwise, please be careful for any breakout towards the yellow critical line.


Aud vs Usd (Daily) - At this moment, I hope wave 2 in white is already completed and therefore, I'm looking forward for a major bearish trend to complete subwave i in 3. Otherwise, please be careful for any breakout towards the white critical line. Good luck.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy, Gbp vs Usd, Aud vs Usd & Usd vs Cad - Market Overview


Gbp vs Jpy (4H) - Preferably, I'm looking forward for another bearish continuation trend scenario to perform subwave 5 either in white or magenta. Therefore, advisable to look for an opportunity towards a bearish continuation entry signal from BSTS later.


Gbp vs Usd (Daily) - At this moment, I believed market just perform a bullish retracement trend scenario either to complete subwave iv in yellow or wave 4 in magenta and therefore I'm expecting towards a bearish continuation trend scenario to complete either subwave v in yellow or wave 4 in magenta.


Aud vs Usd (Daily) - At this moment, I'm looking for a possible completion of wave 2 in white and therefore I'm looking forward towards a bearish continuation trend scenario to perform subwave i in white. A strong pullback from the upper green channel trendline would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, we may see another exausted bullish rally perhap to complete wave 2 in magenta.


Usd vs Cad (Daily) - Preferably, I'm looking towards a reversal "triple bottom" pattern scenario either refering to the alt counts in yellow or white. Therefore, advisable to look for a bullish reversal entry signal from BSTS later. Otherwise, please be careful for a "bearish trap" scenario. Good luck.


Thursday, March 4, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy and Gbp vs Usd - Market Overview


Gbp vs Jpy (4H) - Preferably, I believed market in progress to complete either subwave 4 in magenta or white and looking forward for another bearish continuation trend scenario. Otherwise, please be careful towards a truncated scenario refering to the alt count in yellow.


Gbp vs Jpy (Daily) - At this moment, I believed market only in a bullish retracement phase and looking forward for another bearish continuation trend scenario refering to either alt counts in magenta or white once this retracement phase is complete. A breakout towards the yellow critical line would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for a truncated scenario (yellow).


Gbp vs Usd (Daily) - Favourably, I believed market in bullish retracement phase and looking forward for another bearish continuation trend scenario either refering to the alt count in yellow (completed) or magenta (in progress). Please be careful for any breakout towards the upper green trendline. Please be extra careful towards the NFP announcement tonight (9.30 pm :GMT+8) Happy weekends and good luck.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Gbp vs Jpy, Gbp vs Usd, Eur vs Usd, Aud vs Usd & Usd vs Cad - Market Overview


Gbp vs Jpy (4H) - At this moment, I'm looking forward for a further bearish continuation trend scenario. A valid "descending triangle" pattern and a breakout towards the bearish continuation critical line 1 would bolster to this scenario. Otherwise, please be careful for any breakout towards the upper yellow trendline.


Gbp vs Usd (Daily) - At this moment, I'm looking forwards for a bearish continuation trend scenario, favourably to complete subwave v in yellow. Otherwise, please be careful for any further bullish retracement trend scenario.


Eur vs Usd (4H) - At this moment, please analyse all 3 possible alt counts. A further bullish retracement trend scenario would indicates that perhaps market either in progress to complete subcorrective wave a in white or subwave iv in yellow. Otherwise, we may see a bearish continuation trend scenario if the white critical line is taken.


Aud vs Usd (Daily) - At this moment, I'm looking forward for a bearish reversal trend scenario refering to the alt count in white to perform subwave i. Otherwise, please be careful for any bullish continuatio in trend scenario perhaps to complete the unfinish wave 2 in magenta.


Usd vs Cad (Daily) - Favourably, I believed wave 2 in yellow is already completed and looking forward for a bullish reversal trend scenario. Therefore, advisable to look for any possibility towards a bullish reversal enrtry signal from BSTS. Otherwise, please be careful for any "bearish trap" scenario refering to the alt count in white scenario.