Friday, February 19, 2010

USD/CAD Poised for a Rally?

I have been watching the USD/CAD with great interest over the last several months. The Canadian dollar has been near par with the USD for the last several months getting at close as the 1.02 handle. As of this writing the pair is trading at 1.0517. The EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF have all been hammered against the dollar the last few weeks, yet the CAD seems to be holding it's own. I feel this is because OIL has held it's support at the 70.00 mark per barrell. I have posted an OIL chart to "explore" the possibility that the USD/CAD and AUD/USD could be lagging behind Euro and Pound. If this head and shoulders comes to fruition, this could be the turning point for the commodity pairs in a good dollar rally. I realize the dollar has rallied already against many other currencies but not the commodity pairs. After attending the Trading Expo in NYC, I heard some very sound fundamental analyst predict a major dollar rally, giving very good reasoning for such. I don't forecast what may happen, however, the technicals could be giving us a hint to what may be coming. If OIL and GOLD begin to fall as some predict, then the USD/CAD will rally and the AUD/USD will fall. I will reserve my judgement for a later date, but it seems quite interesting to view the possbilities.