Tuesday, February 2, 2010

AUD/USD...Waiting on a nice Pull Back

Many market analysts thought the RBA would raise rates yet again but it was not to be. This is why you never trade what you think, but trade what you SEE. Forecasting the market is alot like forecasting the weather. Meteorologists scurry on television to give us the up to the minute forecast, many times in error.
The weather is a force much greater than anything we can predict many times and the market is no different.
While we can be on the right track much of the time, it is better to let the decisions be made by the movers then take positions based on that. For those who held long positions thinking that the RBA would raise rates, they are taking the hit. I prefer to think of it as an even better opportunity to buy. The .8550-80
range to me would be a nice area but .8200-.8350 to me would be a great bargain. I do forsee that if any of
the Central banks start to increase rates steadily, the RBA makes the best case at this point given their solid
economy and being commodity driven. AUD/JPY carry traders could also benefit from a deepen pull back in the AUD. We will all have to see what shakes out and make our decisions accordingly. I like bargains! :)