Friday, August 21, 2009

LOOK FOR SUPPLY/DEMAND... AUD/USD

Everyone who knows me realizs that Chris Lori's methodology is the standard by which I trade.
Additionally, I have looked at other views of S/R (price action) trading and learned a few tips there as well. One such tip, of which was brought to my attention by a fellow trader Rob Manheimer is the idea of supply and demand. Of course we all know that supply and demand is what makes any market place run. Without either of them and we have a one way street. From this supply (short) or demand (long) we can learn to identify such areas on charts. One thing to look for is a consolidation and a quick departure from that area. So, if we are looking to short, we want to trade it at the base of the supply area of which it fell from, better known to many as a fractal. From the contributors of this idea, the key here is how quickly it came out of that price base. Looking at the AUD/USD one hour chart, I located one such area and just put my line there earlier today for a possible short trade. To be quite honest, I didn't think this pair would reach there today as it had already traveled quite a distance when I examined the chart. Well, as we all know, the market can do anything and proved it yet again to me today. I did place a couple of other trades and wasn't focused on this pair but wanted to post it as to how clear this was. It lined up nicely with the 79% retracement of where the move intiated downward and came all the way back up to test the base area. I have found that these trades can really offer some nice profits. Usually, price is going to have trouble getting through the consolidation, and in this case it is just above the price base we are looking at selling into. We can have a good stop above the consolidation and with the other factors of this pair really being overextended on the day and a key fib level, this gives us a highly probable set up.