Monday, November 17, 2008

11-17 EUR/USD Trade by Rodney Guerzon


This is a trade that was sent to me by a fellow trader that I met at a Chris Lori seminar in Raleigh, NC and has become a good friend over the last few months. This guy has studied and learned price action using the same techniques that Chris teaches and is doing very well for himself. Rodney and I have discussed the price behavioral aspects of trading several times and realize that this one component is a major factor from moving from amateur to professional status as a trader.Couple that with discipline and overcoming the psychological hurdles and therein lies success. He implements discipline constantly and I respect what he is accomplishing. He sent this EUR/USD trade shot and if looking at the base of support that the pair broke, Rodney traded the retest on the first attempt going with the direction of the flows. One thing that Rodney is also implementing is when you get confirmation by a closing on a 1 hour chart or above, you can take the retest of the TSR area on the very first hit and get paid the majority of the time. Rodney's picture shows exactly this type of set up as a bearish commitment candle closed a few candles before retesting the 2505 area. Another thing I noticed about this chart and something to keep in mind is how the next candle after Rodney entered dropped quickly and paid him, but if he had NOT taken profit, look how it came right back up into the range rejecting wanting to go any lower. Then, the 2505 area comes into play again as price closed with a bullish candle above the level. You can't really see it clearly on the chart but after it closed above, it made a second attempt near the 2505 but not quite reaching it before paying nearly 100 pips in a long trade. Like Chris says again and again, "you do not have to know which direction the market is going to be profitable". You just look for price to show you a level, wait for commitment one way or the other and if you can observe this over time, you will see that you can profit on these types of trades much more than you lose. I do want to stress that in this market these particular set ups are paying more pips than over the past several years, especially on the euro as it has become very volatile. The thin liquidity offers more pips because the ranges are bigger. As Chris stresses, we must change and adapt to a the current market environment and if the ranges start to get smaller, we must expect our profit to be smaller as well and adjust to that. At that point these inside the range trades may not be worth the risk because of the smaller profit potential. Right now, however there are very few patterns developing in this market. Even when they do, they seem to be 50/50. Knowing price behavior and trading that alone gives a trader a big edge in this environment and these types of trades seem to be very probable. Again, I tip my hat to Rodney for his success and I know Chris is proud of him as well. Way to go Rodney, and thanks for the contribution.