Friday, August 29, 2008

8-29 Trade the Extremes

After doing some backtesting last night, it has become clear to me that I have gotten away from my methodology somewhat. Of course, I still try to get a feel for the sentimentand fundamentals be aware of time of day and ATR etc. One thing I have gotten away from, for whatever reason, is just trading the extremes for a pull back into the range. I can go back and point to endless examples where a daily range was broken and then bounced at the 127, 138 or 162 retracments for some very good profits. I am not a fan of trading inside the daily range, although many successful traders can pull it off based on candle closings and fractals, but what has defined my success has been trading on the outside of bigger ranges and I am going to get back to that way of trading. The August thin liquidity has caused me to lose a few trades that I wouldn't normally lose and to be quite honest, shaken me up a bit... but being more patient to wait on some consilidation on the larger time frames has shown to provide good trades. Confidence, or lack of it has a profound effect. The odds are heavily in my favor if I stick to my plan. This I will do.