Saturday, August 30, 2008

8-30- ( USD/CHF Results)


My limit order on this pair short at 1.1037 seemed prove a good choice. The high on the day was 1.1037. My key area was 1.0135-40 so I went in the middle because that's where the 127R was sitting. So far, so good, the trade has already paid me and I have taken some profit. Now I will see if the BBB pattern that seems to be forming here fulfills.

Friday, August 29, 2008

8-29 USD/CHF


I have been stalking this trade all week. This seems to be a riptide on the daily with confirming patterns (gartley and butterfly) at the level 1.1040. I have my limit in at 37 just to try and get in on this. The BBB on the 4 hour chart also seems to be confirming the short side. I will just see how it comes out.

8-29 Trade the Extremes

After doing some backtesting last night, it has become clear to me that I have gotten away from my methodology somewhat. Of course, I still try to get a feel for the sentimentand fundamentals be aware of time of day and ATR etc. One thing I have gotten away from, for whatever reason, is just trading the extremes for a pull back into the range. I can go back and point to endless examples where a daily range was broken and then bounced at the 127, 138 or 162 retracments for some very good profits. I am not a fan of trading inside the daily range, although many successful traders can pull it off based on candle closings and fractals, but what has defined my success has been trading on the outside of bigger ranges and I am going to get back to that way of trading. The August thin liquidity has caused me to lose a few trades that I wouldn't normally lose and to be quite honest, shaken me up a bit... but being more patient to wait on some consilidation on the larger time frames has shown to provide good trades. Confidence, or lack of it has a profound effect. The odds are heavily in my favor if I stick to my plan. This I will do.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

8-27 MINDSET VS REALITY


Ok, I have looked at several trades this week, and even saw more set ups than I posted here in the journal that all paid. Not one losing trade set up, yet I am scared to pull the trigger for the ones that do. I realize that I am letting the mindset of fear become part of my trading instead of viewing the reality of the market. I have been listening to Chris on PTC and know that he is correct in being very careful in approaching trades in this market. Still yet, there have been several high probability set ups that adhered to my approach and technical parameters that I did not take. I look back and wonder why it is sometimes we battle this type of fear. I know that losing is part of the game so I must realize that I will lose from time to time. I try to trade on the extremes of the range which has lent itselft to some good trades over the last two weeks. I know the market is making new lows but waiting on confirming patterns when the market is stretched out will win much more than lose. Another thing I must consider is the flows and sentiment. The GBP/USD had a very good rally to a key low that would have paid well and it was going with the general flows. A look on the 15 minute chart at the key low of 8400 where support becomes resistance. A small pattern around this level (BBB) where the lows are getting lower and the highs are as well, with one last attempt at that high was a perfect entry. When you let your mind play games, you lose site of what is taking place right in front of your eyes. Of course, some traders catch moves like these because they trade what they see instead of what they think. Hmmm, reality vs mindset. Seeing is believing.

8-28 (8-27 Trade Results)


Oh well, I missed again. I was looking to go short at 1.1030 on this head and shoulders pattern with the USD/CHF pair. I knew we were in a key area, but got a little greedy, plus I had no internet connection and was watching price action on my smart phone. I just passed on this one, but another trader I know took it and made some nice pippage. Oh well, again, that's trading.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

8-27 Looking at 2 Trades






The first set up is very close to my entry. Right now it is 10:45 EST and near London close. The USD/CHF may be setting up a head and shoulders pattern. Something I have observed is that the probability of this type of pattern fulfilling goes up if the neck is tilted in the direction of your trade. My entry on this trade will be near the highs of the right shoulder at 1.1030 (short). I will wait and see.

The other trade set up is on the USD/JPY pair. I don't trade this pair that often but a nice BBB (bull bear battle) pattern seems to be unfolding. I might would consider this trade near the 79% of the overall move and at the back side of this trend line. I mainly am looking at where support became resistance at this level and how price has struggled here on the longer time frames. I think 110.10-20 area may present a very good trade.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

8-26 Looking back, at least a few trades


I realize that trading this market in August has been tough, to say the least. That being said, if I will stand back and realize that there can be trades come about that will pay much more often than they lose, then overall these trades will pay off. Today for instance, looking at the AUD/USD there was a nice trade. Of course all of these trades do not pay 100 pips but I can remember a time when I was happy with 10 pips a day. What happened to that LOL? Anyway, the yearly low on 1-22 was 8510. If you look at the weeks range and traded it there. There was a 138R of last weeks range and a 127 Ext. of the previous weeks range aligned nicely within a few pips of the yearly low. The low today was 8491. Again, I know this is against the trend but more often than not, if you manage these trades properly, they will pay and this one gave a good 50+ pip bounce.


GBP/USD set up a nice trade intraday, although this is not a set up that I normally trade. I sat there and watched price go to previous support, a yearly, monthly, weekly, and daily low, after it had travelled 160+ pips then retraced 80+ back to previous support and the 62% retracement, but still decided to pass.

8-26 (8-25 Results on GBP/USD Possible Trade)


Oh well, I had my level picked and the high came as close at 10-15 pips of my entry. Going with the overall flows seemed to fair well for this area, but didn't quite get to my entry. That's trading.

Monday, August 25, 2008

8-25 GBP/USD Possible Trade


GBP/USD could set up for a good short trade if it reaches the 8600 area. This shot shows a 50% retracment there, along with S/R and a 162R there as well. The daily range would place this trade at a 200 pip travel distance. This may prove to be a good London/US close trade. We will see

8-25 (8-24 Results)

It seems as though what the charts were telling me proved to be true.

EUR/USD- didn't get quite to my entry at 1.4686 but did make it very close at 1.4695
GBP/USD- Butterfly pattern did pay at the 138R area and rallied 150+ pips
USD/JPY- 110.00-110.25 seemed to be the cap so far as this pair seems to still seems to have room to fall and so far has fallen 50+ pips from the 110.00 area
USD/CHF- BBB again seems to be fulfilling on this pair falling off around 100 pips from Sundays high
AUD/USD- Another BBB pattern that is showing signs of bullishness. After pulling back between 79 and 100% of the daily range

Saturday, August 23, 2008

8-24 UPDATED

EUR/USD- 4750 seems to be a strong level acting as support and resistance for the last couple of weeks. If it holds and rallies, then I would be looking to buy pull backs as the sentiment seems to have changed either from profit taking or dollar fundamentals.
LONG trade- possibly at the 4686 level which would indicate a BBB pattern forming.
SHORT trade- a bearish gartley would form at 4983 and aligns with the high on 8-13

GBP/USD- With this pair being very bearish I am cautious to take long trades but it does seem to be oversold on longer time frames. This is a good environment for a riptide trade below the yearly low and right near the figure of 8500.
LONG trade- possibly a butterfly pattern or riptide depending on timing.
SHORT trade- I do not look to go short at this point unless I have a rally going after some daily highs

USD/JPY- Another BBB pattern seems to have formed on yet another USD cross. We had a retracent to the 79% level on Friday at 110.13 so this also could set up for a false break or sell off and give an attempt to short the market
SHORT trade - 110.00 seems to be a very strong area. I will watch for weakness.

USD/CHF- Very similar to the USD/JPY in that we have a BBB look. Also had a rally to a key level on Friday. A move to 1.10-1.1005 would be a 79% move from the monthly high and a 127R from Thursdays intraday high of 1.0971. Again timing would be key to this trade
SHORT trade- 110.05 again depending on time of day

AUD/USD- This pair has, like the other USD pairs fallen so far that there should be some type of retracement. I am bullish this pair and will look for pull backs at key areas .

8-21 GBP/JPY


This set up is one I was watching as it was going into the new day on the 22nd. Chris had told us on PTC that he saw further weakness in gbp/jpy before it dropped and I was looking at capitalizing on a pull back. I had an initial short limit order at 203.84 around 18:00 GMT but did not get filled. Once it went into a small fractal, I removed the order. I had seen that that 204.40-50 area should offer a good trade. Previous support was seen at that level and I felt was strong as it had taken 2 days to break below (19-20th) and hold. Once I saw the drop of nearly 300 pips and then a rally going after the days high, I thought that this would offer a good opportunity. My reason for looking at 203.84 initially was that it was a 127R of the intraday swing aligning with 62% of the last daily swing. Knowing that many times the gbp likes to go into the main area of congestion and being in the Asian session, the next level at 204.53 had even more confluences. The trade paid 35 pips on the first hit and then fell to offer a good profit before retracing.

8-21 GBP/USD


After looking back, it turns out that another trade I missed might have been the trade of the week instead of the Euro trade I mentioned earlier. On Thurs. the 21st, the GBP/USD had rallied and approached the high of the week late in the session. The daily range was extended, it was late in the US session and approaching the 38% retracement of a very generous fall from the previous weeks. The 138 retracment of a significant swing aligned itself nicely to the 38% retracment . I would have entered short in the market at 1.8794 but the high only reached 92. This week's candle closed very bearish at the bottom of the range for the week but it remains to be seen if I missed a very good position trade by only 2 pips. None the less, it goes to show that waiting on the market to make sense and trading it at key levels with other factors on your side will make for very good profits.

8-20 EUR/USD


This is the first post I will make on this blog. After several weeks of a relentless and mountable move by dollar bulls, it seems the market has found some stability. I observed several good set ups this week , but one stands in my mind as the best. On Wed. the EUR/USD formed the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. I missed my entry by 11 pips as it did not get to the gartley pattern entry I was looking for. The low was 1.4671 and I was waiting on an entry long at 1.4660. As you can see, it would have been a very nice trade. I did however take a counter trend trade at the end of the day getting filled short at 1.4907. Previous resistance became support along with a fib confluence of 62% and 79% ( not shown on chart)of different swings. That was a profitable trade